Looking Beyond The Horizon

Innovative Technologies & Services

Tiered broadband – an upcoming war between content providers, bandwidth providers, and reshaping consumer habits

Posted by evolvingwheel on June 15, 2008

Briefly, what is tiered broadband? Well, it’s about tiering the pricing of broadband access according to one’s usage habits. So simple. Now, the broadband ISPs or telco providers will meter your Internet usage the same way the utilities company meter your water and electricity. So, in a nutshell, the cable and DSL providers found out that a small percentage – nearly 5% (that what they publish), hog the bandwidth with heavy downloads of movies and shows, games, and other P2P services. So, there should be tiered pricing for byte usage so that it could deter the heavy users and provide a level playing field for the average consumers! Does it sound to you like an ominous bell ringing somewhere very close to your dataport to your computer?

First, let me put forth an analogous argument. We all drive cars and we all fill our tanks with gasoline. Do the gasoline companies like our beloved Chevrons and Texacos restrict customers with gas-guzzling SUVs to tiered gas access at the pump? How come we all walk to the station and can fill our pump to the limits without any kind of caps? And besides, there is no balance check on the pollution that our big vehicles spew out into the environment either. So how come the gasoline industry run a model that works on a equal pricing point for everyone regardless their usage habits? When infrastructure (here gas) dries up, everyone ends up footing the bill.

Let’s just run a small math on what our average daily Internet usage looks like. Assumptions – growing number of users now watch video and TV shows on the Internet through channels like HULU and VEOH. Same users sign up often for QUAD-play services offered by the same cable companies/telcos that include VOIP and other @HOME calling plans (unlimited usage).

  1. Average NBC/ABC 1 hour shows on the Internet – 500MB
  2. Average Netflix movie downloads regular/HD – 500MB/3-5GB
  3. Average application downloads for productivity – 100 MB
  4. HULU/VEOH shows over the Interent – 500MB for 1 hour
  5. Apple iTune downloads can range around – 100MB – 1GB (for video downloads)

So, if you start metering users for practices that are soon going to demolish the 80-20 rule of 20% heavy users accessing 80% of bandwidth and rapidly percolates through a more common habit across the metropolitan lifestyle, the concept of tiered bandwidth access will just land us back to the early days of AOL online where Internet usage through dial up was billed hourly. We have to realize on thing. Today, broadband is almost a commodity because there are lots of players who have found ways to use the Internet to generate revenue. Now, that all depended on a huge volume of consumers using it in the first place. And what triggered that? When AOL in 1996 first launched the unlimited access plans. That was the tipping point. As users got a taste of the free infrastructure, usage boomed and reached an astronomical magnitude.

I personally do not believe that the operators are trying to stop the heavy users because they want to make a level playing field. Just listen to this – Mr. Leddy of Time Warner said that the media companies’ fears were overblown. If the company were to try to stop Web video, “we would not succeed,” he said. “We know how much capacity they’re going to need in the future, and we know what it’s going to cost. And today’s business model doesn’t pay for it very well.” [read here]….. so you can see that it’s all about the monetization model! 

The other party of interest are the content providers like big labels and other independent content production houses across the world. These content producers are eyeing heavy content usage as their new source of revenue when TV and radio usage are running flat with stagnant ARPU. How would they consider tiered bandwidth as a sweet proposition? Yes, you are absolutely right. They hate it from their guts. Now the interesting part is, these content producers are trying to find a revenue generation model for themselves as well. And they are trying to partner with marketing brands to pay for their production. Intreresting development will take place if they have to incentivize their offering by paying for the bandwidth needed to download their content. Hmmm.. sounds very enticing!! Obviously, the Time Warners realized that as users are more and more accessing heavy content, they can’t make those millions of dollars from total monopoly on their laid cable lines as bandwidth access tops their ARPU generation model. They want to eat a piece of the pie too. More with time, these network providers are figuring that it might be their only way to not being mutated to just a pipe provider with a flat fee model. How will they survive?

So, for now, the war is impending. The key to an amicable solution with the consumers enjoying a great Internet experience like before will be a monetization model (or several) that generates cash through some relationship leverage and revenue share. Let’s keep on working on that -;)

You may also check Marc Cuban’s blog – interesting discussion.

Posted in Communication, Innovation, Media | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

You have probably heard about Six Sigma. But, what is NINE SIGMA?

Posted by evolvingwheel on May 12, 2008

Open innovation is the buzzword of the current time. After reading Chesbrough’s article on Open Innovation, I went to Google and ran few searches on open innovators. Some wonderful articles and links came back. What impressed me is the potential of open innovation in bringing down amplifying product innovation costs in big corporations. However, one specific aspect of the idea that caught my attention is open innovation intermediary. NINE SIGMA is one such open innovation intermediary that matches the technology needs and questions from companies (referred to as Innovation Seekers) with the possible solutions from a huge network of scientists, university researchers and technology incubators (referred to as Solution Providers). Few other such intermediaries are Innocentive and YourEncore. As I looked up a bit more about NINE SIGMA, I found something interesting. The president and CEO of NINE SIGMA, Paul Stiros, is a former director in P&G’s Corporate Innovation & Knowledge Group. No surprise that the person at the top comes from the breeding ground of open innovation in corporate America.

Please click on the NINE SIGMA logo to read an interview with Paul Stiros in Business Week.

What sounded more interesting is the trend. Think about it. Currently, large companies are reaching out through these intermediaries to seek knowledge and information to innovate their product development value chain. Cost and time are becoming extremely critical as these two gets costlier day-by-day. Often, predatory competitive landscape doesn’t give the company R&Ds and management enough space and time to pursue research that demands considerable time and resources. This is the trigger point – these companies reach out to the intellectual capital outside their boundaries through NINE SIGMAs. But, there is a risk when the innovation seekers can bypass these intermediaries and create their own brokerage house to gather knowledge from outside. In return, they can provide their IPs as incentive for agile and specialized contributors. In fact, it kind of resembles the early days of Priceline, Expedia, and Orbitz. The airline companies initially sold cheap seats through them. But, soon these airliners got smart, and went out with their own bandwidth to create a customer base and cut the middleman.

One other question I got is the protection of IP and hence competitive edge when a company embarks on open innovation. Chesbrough argues that when IP is not locked down but shared across a transparent but reciprocal partnership, the strength of that partnership creates the competitive edge and barrier to entry for other companies outside the partnerships. Now, if knowledge is an enabler, then can the source of that knowledge become a complementary asset for the innovation seeker? Read a nice discussion in the link below:

Balancing IP Security and Open Innovation

Image: Paul Stiros @ NINE SIGMA

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Value capture in context of uniqueness and complementary assets.

Posted by evolvingwheel on May 3, 2008

The ‘Value Capture’ model in technology industry has left me intrigued about several issues in the hi-tech segment. As I read more and more about the framework of value capture in context of the uniqueness of a product and the availability/nature of complementary assets supporting innovation, I felt the urge to use structured thinking in rationalizing the profitability and sustainability of a product of the current time. So here what I plan to do. I will first create a personal evaluative model (just for fun) that would help me to evaluate the success (monetization) of an innovative product. Next, I am going to toss that product into the model and analyze the outcome. The essence of the effort is to figure out if I can derive some pointers to identify the success or anticipated success of the product. The motivation of doing this arose from one of my peers (Seph Skeritt – given at the end) who ran a similar model in his industry of interest.

Here’s my N-step model:

Step 1: Current value captured by the product (if any)
Step 2: Define and characterize uniqueness (if any).
Step 3: Identify/define the complementary assets? Analyze/identify if complementary assets are tightly held or easily available. (Is it a sharable value chain?)
Step 4: Check if uniqueness can be retained (competitive landscape) and if value can be sustained
Step 5: Conclude and post forecast/outcome

The product: iPhone

Step 1: As quoted by Strategy Analytics: ‘Boston, MA – October 18, 2007 – The latest Strategy iPhoneAnalytics data from its ProductTRAX program projected that nearly 1.1 million units were delivered to US consumers through the combined AT&T and Apple outlets during Q3, totaling 1.325 million units since the iPhone was launched in late Q2. “The iPhone has become AT&T’s top selling device, commanding some 13 percent of AT&T’s overall handset sales, and the 4th top selling handset in the US market,” according to Barry Gilbert, VP of the Strategy Analytics BuyerTRAX programs’.

So, the numbers look quite captivating and I will start with the assumption that the Q3 numbers show how Apple has captured value from its iPhone in the recent past.

Step 2: iPhone is the first commercialized smartphone with touchscreen that absolutely WOW-ed the industry. The phone also came with other features like auto-adjustable screen (portrait-to-landscape), triangulation locator, ambient light-sensitive brightness, and tons of productivity and gaming tools. Besides, the phone carried an iPod with it that just shifted gears and brought music to the mobile domain – Apple’s answer to the increasing challenge posed by mobile operators and competing devices bringing music to cellphones. Further, Apple vigorously protected its IP by having super-private access to the Apple mobile OS and putting a SIM-lock for its carrier partner AT&T.

Thus the uniqueness of iPhone is completely appropriated (D. J. Treece).

Step 3: In this segment, Apple had the advantage of different complementary assets not just limited to within the corporation. Apple itself provided the design, brand, and the global scale. The complementary assets extended to deep relationships that Apple developed with it’s suppliers in bringing the iPhone from the lab to the market. You can find the full supply-chain of iPhone in this link (http://www.flickr.com/photos/49228180@N00/362225946/sizes/o/). Other than the touch screen and wifi, all its components are coming from outside of the US. Apple could reach economy of scale by the strength of these partnerships.

The most significant complementary asset came from the MNO partnership with AT&T. One and only AT&T carried iPhone on its product portfolio in the US. Thus, the economy of scale from rollout to adoption depended heavily on AT&T’s coverage and scalability of its own data/voice network.

Installed base: Apple enters the market here with iPod’s success and critical mass derived from interest in the MP3 player and iTunes. Hence, iPhone landed with a decent installed base delivered by brand equity and a distinct category identification of mobile-music. Furthermore, the tie-up with AT&T created the network externality that generated the inflection point observed in positive feedback loop. One can only use iPhone if he is on AT&T. So, more people get’s on AT&T to use iPhone. This helps AT&T capture value which then delivers value back to iPhone. This is an indirect network effect. However, there is also a brand loyalty with iPod and users of iPod have the back compatibility of porting their iTune library to the iPhone easily. This helps to retain the existing installed base and doesn’t create overshot customer.

You may keep in mind that Apple had a great advantage. In reaching inflection points through network effects, a company has to create critical mass before getting to that point. iPhone, with the sheer greatness of the product, showed the ability to draw crowds to that inflection point very fast.

Hence, the complementary assets are tightly held and Apple doesn’t operate across any sharable value chain (a value chain that can be used by a competitor).

Step 4: To understand the sustainability of the uniqueness, let’s observe the competitive landscape. With iPhone’s success, several device manufacturers and MNOs started working on similar smartphones with amplified vigor. The following touch-phones are very close to the market –

HTC Touch P3450 (http://www.plemix.com/phone-htc-touch-phone%20pda)
Samsung F700 (http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/cellphones/samsung-f700-smartphone-looks-awfully-familiar-234901.php)
LG KE850 (http://www.mobilewhack.com/lg-ke850-prada-officially-announced/)
MEIZU M8 (http://www.mobilewhack.com/meizu-m8-an-apple-iphone-look-alike/)

Now, I wonder how the competitive landscape will evolve when non-ATT network operators pick these phones up and run on their marketing bandwidth. One other thing that could matter is penetration pricing and better complementary assets provided by the competitors. There had been serious complaints about ATT’s EDGE speed. See the faltering numbers for iPhone in 2008 Q1 here (http://www.rcrnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080426/SUB/464074023/1015).

But, AT&T paid heed and started launching its 3G network in the US metropolitan areas – a move perfectly juxtaposed with Apple’s 3G iPhone launching by June end. Hence, ATT as a network externality strongly held close to Apple’s phone, is creating ‘value’ to capture ‘value’ and augment that value to iPhone’s profitability. Further, ATT is planning to subsidize the phone by $200. A great move to sustain the value capture trajectory.

I think this gives a perfect example of the evolution of uniqueness & complementary assets over the lifecycle (shown in the powerpoint).

Step 5: Considering the above discussion, we do see several of these dynamics in play right now that have helped Apple to capture a lot of value and at the same time have triggered a slower growth during 08 Q1. However, the complementary asset in terms of partnership with ATT may still help iPhone sustain growth. So, even though the competitive landscape unfolds and the uniqueness of the product dissolves, iPhone may still be able to capture value leveraging its partnership with the carrier.

Below are two graphics on the complementary asset over product lifecycle

Blog_Lifecycle.ppt

A similar model/analysis explored by Seph Skeritt in Social Networking.

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My activity will be little slower

Posted by evolvingwheel on April 26, 2008

My Dear bloggers and blog readers,

As you may have noticed lately that my submission rates have gone down considerably over this month. The primary reason is that I have started my business school at the University of Chicago and the coursework along with several other leadership activities have critically depreciated my ability to contribute to this blog more often. It is quite natural that my postings out here require a decent degree of research and the time constraint is limiting me from doing that.

However, I will still keep on posting on this site but in a limited manner as opposed to 4-6 posts/month earlier. Meanwhile, with a growing knowledge of business applications, I will evaluate researches more from the perspective of business viability from now on.

Thanks again for visiting my blog. Hope you have enjoyed it so far and I look forward to pursue this hobby in the future.

Thanking you,
EvolvingWheel.

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Industry paying heed to Bisphenol concern – my earlier post saw the trend

Posted by evolvingwheel on April 18, 2008

The news article just showed up in MSNBC. Hard-plastic Nalgene water bottles made with bisphenol A will be pulled from stores over the next few months because of growing consumer concern over whether the chemical poses a health risk. Nalgene has responded to a growing concern among consumers about the negative health effects from using Bisphenol water bottles. I feel good about bringing this item to my blog earlier and feel somewhat good about the traction the subject is gathering among manufacturers. In fact, I myself took the decision of using Bisphenol free milk bottles for my daughter couple of months back. You may read my earlier article here http://innovech.wordpress.com/2008/03/01/strike-against-bisphenol-consumer-awareness-dictates-product-shift-despite-regulatory-indifference/

Now I would like to keep any eye on the Bisphenol production-to-market value chain and it’s pressure on the regulating agencies. Will they go that extra mile to make agencies diffuse the concern or will the market adjust by itself over time and respect the opinions of educated consumers? Besides, this is an unique case where industry has taken a step ahead of any FDA announcements!

Posted in Environment, Innovation, Water | Leave a Comment »

Requesting help – please complete this survey

Posted by evolvingwheel on April 7, 2008

Dear INNOVECH friends,

Recently, I have got involved in a small project that involves mobile newmedia delivery and dynamic content in miniature devices. This project is targeted towards an understanding of human uses of mobile devices that goes beyond just making calls. The fact-driven research foresees a study that could help analyze human interactions with small User Interfaces. The research would gather information about behavioral expectations and ergonomic experiences while using a mobile device.

Please be a part of my endeavor and I will sincerely appreciate your interest. This survey shouldn’t take more than 2 minutes to complete. Follow the link below.


Click Here to take survey

Thank you,

Evolving Wheel

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RFID goes beyond tracking – Can smartcard be smart enough?

Posted by evolvingwheel on March 29, 2008

John was standing by the door of the overhead Red Line commute train with no idea about where to get off. As he stared blankly at his ticket for the Maroon 5 show, the automatic door just closed. Suddenly an idea clicked. He took out his cellphone, turned the ESI (External Source Input) button on, brought it near the ticket, and BINGO! It worked – the ticket had an embedded RFID chip that beamed the phone with the location map of the theater. Now imagine one step ahead – John, then held up his phone closer to the transit map on the train and a blink flashed – the RFID chip in the CTA map absorbed the existing target location in his phone, mapped against the current location of the train, and sent him back a direction log to get to the right stop! nokarfid.jpg

Well, this is not a Arthur C Clarke imagination – it’s more like a reality in next few years or may be even at the end of this year. Samsung has been up to developing a RFID chip that will be able to read information from different RFID chips embedded in all kinds of materials. The chip, more like a smartcard, will be able to read schedules, recipes, route maps, directions, and what not from chips that will appear at different spots and in multi-functional objects. Read the detail [here]. The best part will be when this RFID chip will be a two way gateway for information swapping.

Now comes the better part. Once you have these RFID chips in mobile devices, what will you do with the extracted information beyond just finding maps and reading calorie charts in grocery stores? Well, then will come the applications that will figure out ways to derive more meanings out of that tag information. In fact, information could be distributed just to trigger some specific application needs.

I just couldn’t miss the opportunity to showcase another company who have been developing some incredibly powerful applications with RFID technology. Mayalys, based in Malaysis, has been set-up by experienced businessmen and engineers based in Asia and France to handle designs, promote & market a range of innovative applications relying on a two way radio smartcard handheld terminal called YADILYS™ that addresses three market segments: electronic payment, intelligent transportation system, and sustainable lifestyles. Investors, interested professionals, and any other RFID enthusiasts should read about the technologies that they are using in implementing RFID based smart systems.

Picture: Nokia is rolling with the big dogs now by pushing out a phone with a technology that hasn t been done much before in cell phones. The company is including read/write RFID capabilities into a mobile phone. The phone seen here is the 3220 NFC prototype that is capable of reading any RFID tags and also writing to an RFID information tag.

Posted in Communication, Innovation, RFID, wireless | Leave a Comment »

Smart electrical grids and broadband over power lines – two winner propositions

Posted by evolvingwheel on March 22, 2008

Over the recent years we have heard, talked, and ruminated about informatics – clinical informatics, bio-informatics, neuro-informatics, social informatics. Now we are adding one more – power-informatics. Yes, that could be a very legitimate name for a science that blends sophisticated engineering, advanced conservation, and proactive allotment of resources in electrical power development, distribution, and savings. All these together are forming a very potent tool in power consumption and smart-grid management.

So what is a smart electrical grid. Even few days back I didn’t know much about this concept – a concept that develops its fundamentals from advanced monitoring of power production, distribution, and usage at both the source and the consumer end. Minneapolis-based utility Xcel Energy has embarked on a project that will ‘equip homes with smart power meters that help people reduce demand when electricity is most expensive. Substations will also use information from the meters to automatically reroute power when problems arise’. You may read the full article [here]. the smart grid is all about saving energy, over-usage, and bottlenecks in grids, power lines, and cluster nodes. In a nutshell, as I understood, when there is peak hour, your intelligent monitor installed in the garage will send a signal to the washer to wait for few hours when the grid load mellows down. Further, the household electrical utensils will pass usage analytics to the power company that would help them forecast usage volume and cost peaks across demographics that stretch across geographic, economic, and cultural spectrum within the population. powerlines-squareweb.jpg

Now there are two other things that came to my attention.

First, one partner of this project, called Current Group, has designed and deployed what is known as BPL systems – Broadband over Power Lines. Now this is just amazing. Being interested in ubiquitous access of the Internet in remotest parts of the world (and poor parts as well), I have often encountered insurmountable difficulties in envisioning accessibility to broadband in under-served communities of the world. Now BPL creates a whole new dimension and henceforth a disruptive innovation that could be called RADICAL. As electricity is considered fundamental to modern civilization, every government have tried their best to push the electrical outlet as deep as possible into villages and remote corners of their countries. Internet is a new phenomenon. But power lines had been growing for decades and have evolved their way into households affected by poverty and other infrastructure disparities. Now if BPL becomes a viable option, then communication accessibility to these parts of the world will be a very very reasonable option. I am very excited by this opportunity. Got to do some real research on the policy, infrastructure, and capital investment needs to bring this to fruition.

Second, is a whole new market development in electrical utilities that talk to the user over broadband – whether that is laid through power lines or wifi or other wireless networks. I will just give a small use case and you can dream all different ways to extend it. When your washing machine gets a warning from your power provider about peaks, it sends you a ping to your cell phone and you communicate back asking it to start two hours later. If you plan to override, your power system charges you premium and you bear the cost by confirming the alert through your mobile device. Is this sounding like sci-fi. May be 5 years from now it won’t!

Last but not the least: My salute to one of the greatest sci-fi author Arthur C Clarke, who passed away in Sri lanka on March, 19. A true dreamer and a visionary of the time.

Posted in broadband, Communication, electricity, Energy, Environment, Innovation, social innovation | Leave a Comment »

Inhaled tuberculosis vaccine – a gateway to affordable and non-invasive drug delivery

Posted by evolvingwheel on March 13, 2008

Several months back I mentioned about saliva as a source of biomarkers for different diseases. The theme of my post was to delineate the non-invasive and easy-to-administer features of a method that could be used in developing areas of the world where harsh environmental conditions, lack of trained resources, and ignorance pose potent threats to proper diagnosis. This posting comes under the same theme of affordable diagnosis and drug administration where the sturdy nature of the delivery methodology makes it easier to transport, store, distribute, and apply medication among masses of population who often survive on less than $1 a day. tb.jpg

Researchers from Harvard University and an Int’l nonprofit Medicine in Need (MEND) have come up with an aerosol version of a common TB vaccine that can be applied as an aerosol mist. The differentiator is the aerosol delivery using nanoparticle technology that may change the current immunization delivery platform altogether. In the hot countries of Africa and Asia, some of the most difficult challenges are storage and sterility of injection needles. This method, which is currently being tested on animals with highly positive outcomes, if successfully implemented among the human population, can add a whole new horizon of social innovation in immunization for the most needy. A more detailed information about the method and their pioneering inventors can be found [here].

Even in the western hemisphere, this new method, if proven successful, can put the industry of drug delivery upside down. Such a scientific innovation could instantiate a process overhaul among several other collateral supporting industries that provide us with needles, storage, delivery medium, etc. Several years back my friend was using the Asthma inhaler called AdvAir. I was really impressed by the easy-to-use style of the delivery medium – air! If a similar technology could be brought over for the Flu vaccine, I wonder what will be the impact on the society where immunization will be a matter of few seconds and the candidate doesn’t even need to be in a clinic or a healthcare facility. Another major dimensional change will be if the immunization becomes a OTC activity.

Picture: Courtesy Harvard Science/David Edwards, the Gordon McKay Professor of the Practice of Biomedical Engineering in Harvard’s School of Engineering and Applied Sciences.

Posted in diagnosis, drugs, Environment, health, Innovation | Leave a Comment »

A new kind of market empowered social innovation

Posted by evolvingwheel on March 9, 2008

While on my way to work last week I was just browsing through my fresh copy of BusinessWeek magazine and came across a small article. On the first pass, the publication seemed insignificant lying almost at the middle of the magazine, in a less than obvious spread. As I kept on reading line after line, a sudden scintillation struck my nerves! Something sounded very very right with a fantastic potential. Before I go any further, here’s the article: A New Kind of First Responder.

So what’s so special in that one page publication. Not going into too much detail, which you will find anyways in the link, I will briefly touch on some key notes. One of the global insurers, Swiss RE, has created an innovative insurance mechanism that covers catastrophic environmental disasters in a particular geographical area of the world. In this particular case, the company has launched a product called Globecat that provides insurance to cover early response to earthquakes in El Salvador. The coverage buyer puts a couple of millions of dollars into a special investment instrument. Globecat then sells bonds to the financial market and raises funds to cover the disbursement if an earthquake of a specific magnitude hits the area. Investors bet on the possibility of an environmental disaster. If there is no earthquake of the specifications demanded by the fund, then the investors makes interest which is paid out by the premium. ‘Bingo‘!! – what a innovative approach to connect the free market with social innovative pursuits to help the poor and the needy affected by natural calamities. bangladesh_flood.jpg

Now think of the potential of these kinds of instruments -

  1. Provides a very fast way to deliver resources to an affected area – not waiting for charities to raise money and taking days if not weeks to provide help to the people. So, that’s the logistical aspect of the equation.
  2. The instrument is allowing investors to bet on natural uncertainties – a more complicated futures market for incidents quite out of our control. What does that do? It creates several opportunities. One, it emphasizes research in atmospheric sciences and earth sciences that provides the ability to forecast such events. May be that is another way to raise the R&D money outside the blessings of NSF, DOD, NASA, and NOAA. Second, the future will create a rating system of different regions prone to activities by analyzing historical data. This natural disaster instrument will then directly affect the agricultural futures in those particular regions. Considering macroeconomic factors directly connected with such attributes, the hedging can control the distribution of agricultural investments in different geographical areas.
  3. Next, I assume, this investment will enrich the market of social innovation by bringing real talent and resources to the plate. Analysts, scientists, and economists could bring a new vigor into the game too. More such innovative approaches will allow the foundations work parallel to the market in orchestrating mechanisms to deliver help to the underserved communities in a more efficient manner.

The hope is ON!

Posted in Environment, Innovation, investment, social innovation | Leave a Comment »

 
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